Understanding the Economic and Educational Impact of COVID-19 Responses in NC

Dr. Zagros Madjd-Sadjadii funded by UNC Policy Collaborative

This study is an empirical study examining three sets of data: (1) detailed information about pass rates on standardized licensure examinations, entrance examinations, and courses; (2) data from the North Carolina Department of Commerce on starting salaries and employment opportunities for graduates; and (3) spending data from all UNC sister institutions for both during and prior to the COVID-19 crisis.  Expenditure data will be entered into our IMPLAN modeling to gauge the fiscal and economic impact of the change in operations on the universities themselves and the wider economy as well as state finances, including tax implications. We examine the impact of various tax policy changes and COVID-19 social distancing on the universities and the surrounding community.  Since we also already have REMI general equilibrium modeling software, we will further examine these changes through that system to ensure robustness of results and make economic predictions over the next 3 to 5 years. In addition, we aim to look at how these responses to the pandemic are affecting not only educational attainment, but also the broader economic impact of these changes.  This includes looking at how the shuttering of the university system to face-to-face instruction and the continued social distancing on campuses through the Fall 2020 semester are combining to impact not only educational attainment but also the wider economy. Finally, we examine the impact of distance learning and employee tele-working on the environment by using environmental modeling to analyze the impact on emissions and on the opportunity costs associated with higher education.  These data will be sorted by institution, socioeconomic group, and county, which will assist policymakers in all 50 states to better understand the broader implications of going exclusively to distance education even after the current crisis abates.  This type of analysis will be vital in informing public debate surrounding these issues for the foreseeable future.